Cease-Fire
Announced in Israel-Gaza Conflict
November 21, 2012 | 1755 GMTU.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton and Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr announced
a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas during a Nov. 21 news conference in Cairo.
The cease-fire is expected to begin at 9 p.m. local time. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told U.S. President Barack Obama that he is
willing to give the Egyptian-brokered cease-fire a chance.
This
cessation of violence is likely highly tenuous. Israel will only agree to a
truce if it has guarantees from Egypt -- overseen by the United States -- that
the Palestinian arsenal of Fajr-5 long-range rockets will be neutralized and
that measures will be taken to prevent future weapons transfers to Gaza. It
remains to be seen what details surface on this core Israeli demand, especially
given its incompatability with Hamas' demand for the blockade on Gaza to be
lifted.
There is also the outstanding issue of Iran,
which Israel has pointed to as the center of gravity in the conflict. The Fajr-5
rockets are Iranian-made, and Iran facilitated the movement of those weapons
into Gaza. Iran may have an interest in prolonging the conflict and could try to
use militant levers in Gaza to derail the truce. Israel must also contend with
the broader dilemma of future Iranian attempts to smuggle advanced weaponry into
Gaza. This is where Egyptian cooperation with Israel on border security becomes
crucial.
If the cease-fire holds, Hamas is within reach of a major
symbolic victory. It will have avoided devastation of the group in Gaza and can
claim a capability to strike the Israeli heartland.
We must watch now if
Hamas honors the cease-fire and if the organization will have the authority to
enforce the cease-fire among other groups, namely the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Until Israel has a guarantee on the Fajr-5s and a cessation of rocket fire, it
is unlikely to forgo the option of a military ground operation.
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