Israel:
Tel Aviv Targeted by Rockets
November
15, 2012 | 1756 GMT
Two
projectiles, which Stratfor believes to be Fajr-5 rockets due to their range,
landed near Tel Aviv -- one just south of the municipal line and one in the
water just outside of the southern suburb of Bat Yam. No injuries have been
reported. A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces denied that a rocket had
landed in Tel Aviv, although this statement conflicts with eyewitness reports
and may reflect the fact that projectiles have landed in areas just south of the
actual Tel Aviv municipal boundary.
Both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic
Jihad have claimed responsibility for the attack. This strike is the furthest
Hamas has ever struck into Israeli territory and signals a major escalation.
Hamas has moved beyond retaliation for yesterday's airstrikes or provocative
bombings and instead is engaged in war. An Israeli ground offensive is now
almost assured.
Central Israel is now under rocket fire for the first time since Saddam Hussein
launched Scud missiles into Tel Aviv during the first Gulf War. This escalation
follows a spike in Israeli airstrikes over the Gaza Strip in the last 12 hours.
The Israeli air force has hit more than 200 targets and Palestinian casualty
numbers have risen to 15 fatalities and dozens injured.
The targeting of
Israel's largest population center raises the specter of a ground operation.
While limited rocket fire directed at small towns in the areas surrounding the
Gaza Strip have been tolerated by the Israelis for the better part of the last
decade, Stratfor expects rocket fire into the area where nearly 40 percent of
the country's population resides -- and extending rocket fire to an area that
now includes over half of the country -- to result in firmer action taken by the
Israeli military to remove this threat.
Regardless of where the missile
hit, the incident indicates that Gaza still has Fajr-5 rockets despite Israel's
efforts yesterday to eliminate those stockpiles. The revelation that Gaza
militants still have Fajr-5 missiles in their arsenals means that the airstrikes
yesterday were incomplete. As Israeli intelligence continues to collect
information on missile sites in Gaza, we can expect to see more airstrikes to
eliminate them.
Related
reports you can access with the subscription:
- Hamas and Israel's Next Move
- Graphic: Range of Gaza Rockets
- Egyptian Fallout from Israeli Action in
Gaza
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The IDF's official website
and multiple media sources have already reported that paratroopers and soldiers
from the IDF's Givati infantry brigade are beginning to prepare staging areas on
the Gaza border for a ground offensive.
While this alone does not make a
ground invasion of the Gaza Strip imminent, the fire on central Israel now makes
this possibility all the more likely. However, if airstrikes do not prove
sufficient to eliminate the long-range missile threat, Israel will need to be
more methodical in finding and destroying those missile sites. That increases
the likelihood of an Israeli ground operation, as that is the only way to secure
the missile sites and prevent their further deployment.
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