Rumors
on a Gaza Cease-Fire
November 18, 2012
Contradictory
rumors regarding the outcome of cease-fire negotiations between Hamas and Israel
have increased dramatically in recent hours. A Hamas spokesman told Al Jazeera
that Israel and Hamas have agreed to 90 percent of the terms of a new
cease-fire. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi is reportedly meeting the evening
of Nov. 18 with a delegation led by Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and another
delegation led by Palestinian Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ramadan Abdullah
Shallah. While Israeli officials have told news outlets that the government is
in talks with Cairo on a cease-fire, Israeli officials are now denying reports
that an Israeli envoy actually traveled to Cairo Nov. 18 for cease-fire talks.
Meanwhile, Turkey appears to be trying to integrate itself into the cease-fire
talks with reported plans for Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to travel
to Gaza on Nov. 20.
There are many good reasons for cease-fire
negotiations to be taking place right now. First, Hamas wants to achieve a
symbolic victory through its long-range rocket attacks against Tel Aviv and
Jerusalem but does not necessarily want to pay the price of seeing its
leadership and infrastructure devastated in an Israeli ground invasion. Second,
Israel has a political imperative to neutralize Hamas' long-range rocket threat
but does not want to necessarily go through with a ground invasion that could
draw Israeli forces into urban warfare in seeking out weapons storage and
assembly facilities. Lastly, Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood can gain
politically from publicly demonstrating solidarity with the Palestinians but
also does not want to deal with the political repercussions of an Israeli ground
attack in Gaza and the pressure that would follow from both Israel and the
United States in trying to force Egypt to crack down on its border crossings
with Gaza.
Though
talks are certainly taking place, it does not appear that a cease-fire agreement
is imminent. Even if 90 percent of the terms are agreed upon, as is being
claimed, it is the final 10 percent that could matter most. There is little
middle ground in this negotiation at this stage so long as Hamas is insistent on
retaining its Fajr-5 long-range rocket capability and so long as Israel views a
ground operation as necessary to neutralize that threat. Egypt is central to
this negotiation; while secondary players like Qatar and Turkey are trying to
edge their way into this negotiation, they do not have meaningful leverage to
sway either side. Reports indicate that Hamas is pushing for a temporary truce
in return for Egypt opening the border blockade on Gaza and Israel halting
targeted killings of its leaders and military commanders. However, unless Egypt
is willing and able to assume responsibility for Hamas' rocket arsenal for a
long-term truce to satisfy Israel's security concerns, it will be difficult for
Israel to move forward in these talks.
Though there have been claims
that rocket fire out of Gaza has slowed down (thus indicating progress toward a
cease-fire), a closer look at the data since the beginning of the crisis shows
that the timing and rate of rocket volleys into Israel through Nov. 18 remains
fairly consistent. Militants in Gaza have typically stopped their rocket fire
around 7 p.m., after sunset, to reinitiate it around 7 a.m. the next day. One of
the reasons for this may be the vulnerability of operators to detection by
Israeli intelligence, surveillance and reconissance assets and resulting
airstrikes. The time at which rocket fired slowed down on Nov. 18 was no
different from the days before it, and the volume of attacks has been consistent
with that of previous days as well.
Additionally, we have also seen two
Fajr strikes on Tel Aviv on Nov. 18, the latest of which took place after sunset
right before rocket fire slowed down for the night. Likewise, after gradually
decreasing Nov. 17, the rate of Israeli air strikes on Gaza is beginning to
climb again, keeping in line with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's
Nov. 18 announcement to his Cabinet that targeted killings would increase. There
remains a possibility that we could see a spike in attacks by both sides as both
Israel and Hamas try to strengthen their negotiating positions and accomplish as
much as they can through their respective attacks before a cease-fire deal is
actually struck. Watching Egypt's actions in the coming hours will reveal just
how close or far both sides may be to a deal.
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