| Military Intelligence forecast: Little chance of war, spontaneous escalation likely |
In annual forecast, Military Intelligence Directorate says that while Israel's adversaries have been cautious until now, they are expected to respond more aggressively in 2018 • Iran's regional expansion efforts likely to face challenges, MI predicts.
Yoav Limor
Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevi, head of the Military Intelligence Directorate
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Photo: Dudi Vaaknin
Israel is unlikely to go to war in 2018, but the probability of an isolated, spontaneous escalation of hostilities will increase significantly in comparison to 2017, the Military Intelligence Directorate asserts in its annual assessment of regional developments and threats.
The intelligence forecast will be presented Monday to the army's high command and, next week, to the cabinet.
According to the assessments, no players in the region are likely to start a war with Israel in 2018 – not Syria and Hezbollah in the north, nor Hamas in Gaza – each for their own reasons. Syria and Hezbollah are preoccupied with rehabilitation after several years of civil war, and Hamas is prioritizing inter-Palestinian reconciliation.
However, isolated developments such as the discovery of an underground terrorist tunnel dug from Gaza into Israel, or an airstrike in Syria attributed to Israel, are likely to spark an escalation in the coming year, the directorate argues.
While Israel's adversaries have been cautious until now, they are expected to respond more aggressively in 2018, which could lead to a clash lasting several days or even longer.
This means Israel will have to be more meticulous in selecting the targets it attacks in the coming year; and in the event of increased hostilities, it will have to take action to prevent incidents from devolving into all-out war. In this context the Military Intelligence Directorate emphasizes the importance of the role Israel's leadership and media will play, as the manner in which they express themselves will directly influence the other side's actions.
According to the directorate's forecast, 2018 will be characterized by the "what happens next" theme and dominated by the restructuring of regional trends.
It will see the conclusion of the civil war in Syria, which will affect the stabilization and preparation for the future by President Bashar Assad's regime and by Hezbollah.
It will see the aftermath of the defeat of the Islamic State group, which may see the terrorist organization re-emerge elsewhere or the rise of another extremist group in its stead.
It will be a year when Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who, even if he survives the year, will face increasing infighting over the leadership of the Palestinian Authority.
It will also be the year after U.S. President Donald Trump's speech decertifying the Iran nuclear agreement, reached by his predecessor Barack Obama in 2015.
Israel can significantly impact all of these developments, the directorate argues.
The Military Intelligence Directorate is closely monitoring Hezbollah's and Hamas' efforts to enhance their respective military capabilities, a trend they say could lead to an escalation of hostilities. While both terrorist groups are determined to gain strength, Israel is equally determined to prevent them from doing so. Israel is unlikely to compromise on this front, fearing that weapons transferred now to Lebanon or Gaza will be used against it in the future.
In this regard, Israel will have to reassess the immunity it has granted to Lebanon in recent years, sparing it from attacks in its territory, particularly if Hezbollah increases its efforts to manufacture weapons on Lebanese soil.
The Military Intelligence Directorate believes that Iran will continue trying to establish a presence across the region, although it can expect more than a few challenges along the way. Russia is competing with it for control over Syria's rehabilitation and for economic projects, and will likely stand in Tehran's path in these areas. Syria, meanwhile, is worried it will be forced to pay the price for Iran's endeavors – namely by Israel.
Iran also faces challenges at home, and Israel's intelligence community is closely monitoring the recent eruption of popular protests across the country, where, among other things, Iranians are decrying the vast sums of money Tehran transfers to the Assad regime in Syria and to Hezbollah in Lebanon instead of remedying domestic financial crises. The belief is that Iran will try dealing with these demonstrations delicately, to prevent them from spiraling into an "Iranian Spring" that could threaten the regime.
According to the Military Intelligence Directorate, no regimes in the region are currently at risk of falling. There is a modicum of concern for the regime in Egypt, which is struggling to cope with the challenges posed by Islamic State's Sinai branch. In light of the group's defeat in Syria and its relative strength in Sinai, insurgents have flocked from the former to the latter.
Islamic State's efforts in Sinai are presently aimed at fighting Egyptian security forces, but Israeli intelligence officials say the group could still try carrying out a large terrorist attack on targets inside Israel
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