The Gaza
Conflict Reverberates in the West Bank and Jordan
November 19, 2012 | 1818
GMTSummary
A
Palestinian who was wounded Nov. 17 during protests in the West Bank against
Israel's ongoing operations in the Gaza Strip has died from his injuries, the
Palestinian Ma'an news agency reported Nov. 19. The West Bank has been calm in
recent years, but significant protests have been taking place across the eastern
Palestinian territory -- which is ruled by Hamas' secular rival, Fatah -- in
response to Israel's Operation Pillar of Defense. The protester's death could
widen that unrest.
These developments have implications in Jordan, where
the regime of King Abdullah II is also struggling with political unrest. The
duration of the Israeli-Gaza conflict will determine the extent of the brewing
unrest in the West Bank and the toll it has on Jordan.
Analysis 
The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel has generated a
significant amount of sympathy for Hamas in the West Bank. In some parts of the
territory, anti-Israeli youth protesters have thrown stones and Molotov
cocktails at Israeli security forces patrols. The protests, while at a low level
for now, complicate matters for the administration of Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas.
While the Arab Spring created conditions that increased
the power of Hamas, it also added to the woes of Fatah, which has been
deteriorating for some time. The group suffers from an aging leadership,
internal splits, corruption charges amid poor economic conditions in the West
Bank and a failure to make progress toward Palestinian statehood in
negotiations. Thus, it is no surprise that Fatah, despite its deep animosity
toward Hamas, has come out in support of its rival and in solidarity against
Israel. Fatah likely chose not to interfere with the West Bank protests to avoid
aggravating matters, but it cannot allow the protests to spiral out of control.
Fatah is hoping that Hamas and Israel reach a truce as soon as possible.
Indeed, the West Bank group is likely using its channels with the United States
and Israel toward this end. Clearly, Fatah does not want protests in the West
Bank to go from supporting Hamas and Gaza to turning against mismanagement in
the West Bank. At the same time, this could be a reason why Hamas, which seeks a
resurgence in the West Bank, would want to prolong the conflict somewhat.
The stirring of turmoil in the West Bank is very worrisome for Jordan,
which neighbors the Palestinian territory and is home to a large population of
Palestinian heritage that harbors anti-Israeli sentiments. The ruling Hashemites
do not want to see the Gaza issue spill over Jordan's borders and accentuate
their own problems.
Jordan's Problems The
effects of the Arab Spring have not really manifested themselves in Jordan, but
the kingdom has not been stable either. Since the outbreak of the regional
unrest in early 2011, King Abdullah II has replaced three prime ministers in
response to low-level but steady protests. The dilemma that the Hashemites face
is that unrest has spread into the ranks of the tribal forces (aka East
Bankers), who until recently have served as the bedrock of the monarchy's
stability. At the same time, in urban areas, the country's largest political
movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, has departed from its traditional role as the
loyal opposition and begun demanding that the palace share power with
parliament.
Meanwhile, the economic situation in the country has
deteriorated to the extent that the government was forced to cut fuel subsidies
earlier this month. The public backlash to the rising energy costs has
intensified the protests. In the early months of the Arab Spring, there were
isolated cases of tribal youths chanting slogans against the Jordanian king and
queen. Such instances of public criticism -- some even calling for the king to
step down -- appear to be growing.
Still, neither the rural-based tribal
principals nor the urban-centered Brotherhood appear to be interested in trying
to topple the monarchy. Indeed, both have made it clear that they do not wish to
see unrest turn into anarchy. But the problem is that neither institution seems
to have a monopoly over the protests; youth groups and other non-brand entities
are driving some of the agitation.
The Brotherhood, which has long
called for the kingdom to cut ties with Israel, has once again raised this
demand. Such calls have not gained traction in the past. But in the post-Arab
Spring atmosphere -- and now with the conflict in Gaza -- the demand could
become a tool for the Brotherhood to extract even greater concessions from the
palace. Already, the king has been on the defensive, asking the Brotherhood to
end its boycott of the political system and participate in upcoming
parliamentary polls. Moreover, after restoring ties with Hamas earlier this
year, the king has sought the mediation of Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal toward
this end.
It is too early to tell what domestic political gains the
Brotherhood could obtain by leveraging the fighting in Gaza. But the king's
persistently defensive approach could lead to apprehension within his camp about
whether he has what it takes to steer the country out of its downward spiral.
Any fissures within the ranks of the Hashemite state will lead only to greater
instability. Over the longer term, instability in Jordan breeds the same in the
West Bank, where the ruling Palestinian National Authority has been unable to
resolve its own political problems.
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