Aging Monarchy in a Time of Change
معهد الامن القومي في تل
أبيب
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Nayef bin
Abdul-Aziz has died in a Geneva hospital. The death of Nayef, thought to be 79,
came as no surprise, for he had been seriously ill for the past several years.
Nayef was only named crown prince in October 2011, following the death of Prince
Sultan. Now, King Abdullah must nominate a new heir for the second time in 9
months.
With a median age of 25.3, Saudi Arabia’s population is
younger than the global average. But you would not know that from the Kingdom’s
leadership. Those at the top of the Saudi royal pyramid are old, and the aging
of the leadership could have geopolitical implications. Specifically, the
advanced age and failing health of King Abdullah should raise concerns about the
future stability of the oil giant in the face of nemesis Iran and the turmoil
rocking the Arab world.
The royal family, so it seems, has been preparing for
Defense Minister Prince Salman, 77, Nayef's full brother, to take over power in
the Kingdom. On November 2011, the former Riyadh regional governor was appointed
defense minister, replacing than Crown Prince Sultan, suggesting he is next in
line to rule. Salman is the only senior potential heir who is well enough to
work. But even Prince Salman’s health is far from perfect: he underwent spine
surgery in the United States (in 2010), has had at least one stroke, and has an
arm that (despite physiotherapy) does not function fully. The official Saudi
media have already been preparing the country for Salman's ascent, wanting to
show that somebody is in charge. Saudi media have been touting the defense
minister as a wise administrator who could act as mediator to settle disputes
between family members as well as handle foreign policy.
Nayef had a reputation for being a hard-liner and a
conservative. He was believed to be closer than many of his brothers to the
powerful Wahhabi religious establishment that gives legitimacy to the royal
family, and he at times worked to give a freer hand to the religious police who
enforce strict social rules. He was interior minister in charge of internal
security forces since 1975, and was known to have a "strong fist" against the
kingdom's Shiite minority and for his fierce crackdown against al-Qaeda's
following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. He later claimed that Jews were
responsible for the attacks.
The lack of transparency regarding succession in Saudi
Arabia has fueled speculation about who will succeed the 89-year-old King
Abdullah, who has not been working on a daily basis for at least three years and
had three back surgeries in 12 months. Abdullah rarely ventures outside his
palace, and his brief meetings with visitors are photo opportunities directed at
the Saudi state-controlled media. The royal house is making extraordinary
efforts to project an image of business as usual.
The succession issue is not risk free, if only because
most of King Abdel Aziz Ibn Saud’s living sons are old and in ill health, while
all other candidates lack experience in running the Kingdom. In addition, the
process is attended by fierce struggles, generally occurring behind the scenes,
making it difficult to predict what the Saudi regime might look like in the
coming years.
.Before the Arab Spring, nothing would limit the term of
Arab rulers other than their own life spans. In one of the least stable regions
of the globe, they are the ones still supplying the façade of stability. In the
short term Nayef's death is not expected to trigger any major changes in Saudi
oil and foreign policy. However, even this veneer of stability is no longer
certain given the advanced ages of the rulers and the danger that the expected
changing of the generational guard will undermine stability. The Saudi case is
unique only in that the holy places of Islam are within its borders, it is the
flag-bearer of the Sunni-Arab camp, and it has the largest reserves of oil in
the world.
Until now, maintaining governmental stability was linked
to succession going from brother to brother rather than from father to son; this
has ensured the choice of a successor with experience in managing the Kingdom
but has also created an aging pool of potential heirs. Consequently, it was
decided as early as 1992 in the Basic Law of Governance that a successor could
also be selected from among Ibn Saud’s grandsons.
In the long term, the kingdom cannot evade translating
the law into practice. But the succession may be no less complicated when the
crown moves down a generation to one of Ibn Saud's grandsons. Balancing the
interests of the various wings of the family, the children of former kings and
of princes will be a delicate task. The more prominent grandsons include Mecca
Governor Prince Khaled al-Faisal, a sun of the late king Faisal and brother to
foreign minister. Khalid, 73. Others include Eastern Province Governor Prince
Mohammed bin Fahd, National Guard chief Prince Miteb bin Abdullah and Deputy
Interior Minister Prince Muhammed bin Nayef. Muhammad, a rising star, serving as
the de facto Interior Minister and in charge of the war on terrorism, has good
working relations with his counterparts in the U.S.
As part of his desire to limit the power of the Sudairi
branch of the family, but also in order to ensure a smoother transition of power
by consensus, King Abdullah established an "Allegiance Council" in 2006. The
group, numbering thirty-five members, has the authority to appoint a king under
circumstances such as the death of the reigning monarch, the successive deaths
of the heir apparent and the king, and illness or other disability that prevents
the king from functioning.
Saudi Arabia’s ability to serve as a counterweight to
the rise of Iran and as a pillar of strength for American policy in the region
is intimately linked to the stability of the House of Saud and the need to
manage the succession smoothly. The fact that the king too might die in the near
future is liable to challenge new institutions that are meant to preserve
continuity of governance. The challenges facing the Kingdom require the transfer
of the crown to a third generation prince who will keep the pace and direction
of the necessary political and social reforms aimed at reconciling conservative
Islamic traditions with the growing needs of a youthful population.
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