Hezbollah
Remains Wary amid Israeli Operations in Gaza
November 17, 2012
While
Hamas is preparing for an Israeli ground assault into Gaza, Hezbollah's
movements on Israel's northern frontier bear close watching. Iranian Defense
Minister Ahmad Vahidi on Nov. 17 called on the Muslim world to retaliate against
Israeli actions in Gaza. Naturally, many are looking in the direction of
Lebanon, where Hezbollah, Iran's most capable militant proxy, could open a
second front against Israel. Though Iran would welcome the opportunity
to demonstrate the spectrum of its militant proxy strength, especially after
supplying Hamas with the long-range
Fajr-5 rockets that have been targeting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, Hezbollah
will likely be extremely cautious in deciding whether to participate in this
war. The group's fate is linked to that of the embattled regime of Syrian
President Bashar al Assad; should Syria fracture along sectarian lines, Lebanon
is likely to descend into civil war, and Hezbollah will have to conserve its
strength and resources for a battle at home against its sectarian rivals.
Indeed, Hezbollah has already been preparing for such a scenario by seizing
control of villages along the Orontes River Basin in order to maintain
connectivity with Syria's Alawite community.
At
the same time, if Hamas is able to bog down Israeli ground forces by drawing
them into a war of attrition in densely populated Gaza City, Hezbollah may see a
political opportunity to burnish its credentials as the region's leading
"resistance" movement. In this case, Hezbollah would likely monitor the
situation until it could be assured that Israeli forces are sufficiently
constrained on the Gaza front before it begins attacks on the northern front.
Hezbollah is not looking for a major confrontation with Israel, and the tens of
thousands of additional Israeli reservists called up compared to Operation Cast
Lead suggest that Israel is already preparing for a two-front contingency. If
Hezbollah does decide to participate in the war, it would be carefully timed to
drive an already embattled Israel toward a cease-fire so that Hezbollah could
claim a largely symbolic victory at relatively little cost.
With
Hezbollah uncertain how the Israeli-Hamas battle will play out, the group
appears to be taking a cautious approach. Stratfor has received indication that
Hezbollah has prevented radical Palestinian groups in southern Lebanese refugee
camps from firing rockets into northern Israel. In addition to an increase in
the number of patrols by the Lebanese army and the United Nations Interim Force
in Lebanon, Hezbollah has been deploying numerous operatives in plainclothes
along the border to monitor the situation. Hezbollah has also installed cameras
around the Ain al Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon to monitor traffic
from the camp to its outside environs. Whereas Hezbollah completely controls
movement into and out of Palestinian refugee camps in the deep south, Ain al
Hilweh lies completely within a Sunni neighborhood. For this reason, Hezbollah
has rented a number of apartments around the camp, especially in al Ta'mir area,
to keep a close watch there.
For now, Hezbollah appears intent on not
allowing the battle in Gaza to spill into southern Lebanon. It remains to be
seen whether that calculus would shift should Hamas succeed in wearing down
Israeli ground forces.
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